Manchester United Are Back (but don’t place any bets yet)

What an electric atmosphere a single win can create. Since a trouncing defeat at the hands of Manchester City back on September 14th, United have won 3 of their last 4 games in the Premier League.

The positive run of form started with an electric contest with Chelsea at Old Trafford which saw both sides reduced to 10 men after a straight red card in the 5th minute from the Blues’ shot-stopper Robert Sanchez followed by a second yellow from uncle Casemiro just before the stroke of halftime. Though they conceded a late goal from a corner headed in by Trevor Chalobah, the Red Devils were able to hold onto the 2 goals they had blitzed past a reduced Chelsea squad in the first half. The narrative after the game was not that of a convincing win, but yet again that Amorim’s system could only function against handicapped circumstances.

The following matchday did little to dissuade arguments that Amorim’s system wasn’t functioning properly. Manchester United sunk to a demoralizing 3-1 loss to Brentford at the Gtech stadium, with the only real bright spot being Benjamin Sesko’s first, albeit scrappy, goal for the club. Hate seems to pile more easily on the Red Devils, and the media circus had their day claiming that Amorim was out of his depth and raising concerns over his presiding over “the worst Manchester United squad in history”.

Pressure makes diamonds, and a resolute 2-0 win over Sunderland coincided with the first major change of the season to the starting 11. Senne Lammens, the Belgian prodigy with the highest save percentage in Europe last season, replaced the somewhat shaky Altay Bayindir, who had already deputized for the dubious and borderline ominous Andre Onana. Not since Fabian Barthez had a keeper been so unanimously maligned by the United faithful, and rightly so. With what seemed like more errors than clean sheets, Onana has finally found his level for Trabzonspor in the Turkish top-flight. A comedy of errors followed whenever he stepped foot onto the pitch at Old Trafford, and the brilliant move to let all-timer David de Gea leave in his stead should have been met with a termination of employment for sabotage. Jokes aside, a grave error of that sort cannot be allowed to happen on such a regular basis. For all the scrutiny that Amorim’s side has come under, it has been astounding to see the maturity from some of the United squad in the face of tirades from the media. Chiefly, the resurgence of Harry Maguire from meme to cult hero has been heartwarming.

Speaking of Slabhead the living legend, his performance against a lackluster Liverpool side was essential to Manchester United securing their 3rd out of a 4 possible wins in this period. A lightning-quick goal from the mercurial Bryan Mbuemo within the first minute of game completely deflated Liverpool’s hopes of averting a 4th successive defeat in all competitions. United’s best defender was their goalpost, with winger Cody Gakpo striking the bar a whopping 3 times throughout the intense affair, though came away from a contest with a rightly earned goal. Questions will be asked of figures like Virgil Van Dijk, who seemed to shy away from his duties shortly after injuring Mac Allister in the build up of the opener. However, the same rash judgement typically leveraged against Manchester United should not be used to paint Liverpool’s performance with one stroke of generalization. Both sides missed 5 chances total during the contest, with Liverpool edging possession and creating a superior 2.75 xG to United’s 1.34 xG. To paraphrase the enigmatic Roy Keane however, the only stat that matters is the scoreline.

We’ve seen Manchester United string together a few convincing performances in a row for the first time in a long while, and although they aren’t secure enough to count on just yet, more of these same results could see them end the season closer to European competition spots than many would have thought based on their first few weeks of the season. Continue to be cautiously optimistic about one of football’s sleeping giants who have hibernated for far too long.

25/26 Transfer Review: Manchester United Football Club

Manchester United is Dead?

Through the tired eyes of a longtime fan…

The year may have changed, but the narrative has stayed the same for Manchester United. Football’s loudest voices will have you thinking that not a single member of the first-team squad knows how to kick a ball, and unfortunately the club has done little to prove them wrong.

The Red Devils’ first major investment came with the acquisition of talismanic forward Matheus Cunha from Wolverhampton Wanderers for a fee of just over 72 million EUR. Cunha had a hand in 38.9% of Wolves’ goal output in the 24-25 season, scoring 15 and assisting 6 in 2,603 minutes in the Premier League. The mercurial forward has shown an intense desire to take on opposition players in his limited time on the pitch, completing a number of dribbles in his first minutes played so far this campaign, including an incredible mazy run against Burnley. His first goal for United has eluded him so far, hitting the post once so far and coming close a number of other times across the first several games. Interestingly, the Brazilian over-performed his xG of 8.63 by 6.37 goals in the English top-flight last season. While some might see this as a warning sign, xG itself can be a misleading statistic if not juxtaposed against other key metrics, as well as the all important eye test. Over the course of his career the Samba star has routinely taken pot shots from distance, or finished from angles that could seem unorthodox for most strikers. Take his Olympico goal last season against *checks notes* none other than Manchester United. A player with the guile to take on something fantastical will always be welcome at Old Trafford. Cunha inherited Marcus Rashford’s recently vacated number 10, vowing to be a driving force behind returning the club to the top of the English football pyramid. These are lofty aspirations for a team coming out of its worst season in recent memory, though a player with the talent and fire of Matheus Cunha could yet prove to be a component in changing the decaying culture of the mighty Manchester United once and for all.

Bryan Mbeumo was the next senior player to arrive at Manchester United for a fee of just under 84 million EUR. The seemingly protracted transfer took most of the summer to get over the line, much to the dismay of the United fanbase. The former Brentford star came off of his personal best Premier League season last year, netting 20 goals and assisting a further 7 in 38 games for the Bees. The Cameroonian winger created 70 chances for his team during the last campaign, completing 49 crosses at an accuracy of 24.3% as well as 52 dribbles at a success rate of 52.5%. His technique and prolificacy are undeniable, yet he falls into a similar category as Matheus Cunha of over performing his xG of 12.26 by 7.34 goals. There could be questions asked of the need for Mbuemo in the current United setup, with Amad Diallo enjoying a breakout campaign while many around him suffered. Amorim sees Diallo as more of an attacking wingback in his 3421 system, with many misunderstanding the system itself. It is NOT the same as a 343, as width is held via forward-thinking wingbacks rather than advanced wingers hugging the touchline. Said wingbacks operate in the outside left and right channels, tracking back to deter threats from opposition wingers or tucking inside suddenly when near the oppositions box to allow for overlaps/crossing opportunities from either of the Red Devils split 10’s operating in the inside left and right channels. This system allows for the perfect combination of the two, who already look to be developing their relationship down the righthand side of Manchester United’s attack. It could be said that the player who will suffer most from this connection would be powerhouse left wingback Patrick Dorgu. With a heavily attack-minded right flank, Ruben Amorim will look to his left-sided player across the 4 of the 3421 to provide more balance, a role more suited to Diogo Dalot at present. The Portuguese has come in for some criticism after a down season for everyone undoing the programming of a certain Erik Ten Hag last year, but his versatility is undeniable. This paid dividends in United’s recent comeback win against Burnley, where Joshua Zirkzee (functioning very well as an aerial threat in a hybrid 9/10 role) headed the ball onto Dalot, who crossed into the box for *shocker* new signing Bryan Mbuemo to tuck away his first strike of the campaign. Mbuemo solves problems, one of those being the lack of goals scored by the United attack.

The final piece of the puzzle, or moreover another puzzling addition to the squad, was a 20 something year old striker costing an extortionate amount of money (the typical +20 million euros because Manchester United and their hapless infantile negotiators are interested) from outside the English Premiership with no experience scoring 15 or more goals in any of Europe’s top 5 leagues. If you require specifications, that’s because Manchester United have gone through Groundhog Day over the last 3 summers; spending big on a young striker and depreciating their value after throwing them in the deep end without support. Rasmus Hojlund, Joshua Zirkzee, and now Benjamin Sesko are all talented attackers in their own right, but you can’t swing an axe with no arms. The lack of discipline in an attack without proper coaching for at least 3 seasons has left most of United’s goal threat up to individual brilliance, an understandably unsustainable model for winning football matches. Sesko looked incredibly promising at Leipzig, with a cannon of a shot and an immense aerial presence. His arrival for an eyewatering 85 million euros was a flashy “signal of intent” from the United board, because we all know that throwing money at your problems is the correct way to solve them. Judgement on the towering Slovenian should be reserved until he returns to the world of football from his however-many-years vacation stay at the Manchester Sanitorium for the criminally insane, where himself, his teammates, and almost a billion fans are being held hostage every single week until the end of the current majority ownership (or one of the numerous international breaks currently suffocating the annual football calendar, whichever comes first). There will eventually be a striker that can succeed in the conditions that have chewed up and spit out Anthony Martial, Romelu Lukaku, Marcus Rashford, Wout Weghorst and Rasmus Hojlund. The only strikers to convincingly wear the weight of the United jersey were the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Cristiano Ronaldo. The commonality between them? They were elite strikers in their mid 30’s with proven experience in multiple competitions. Given the current state of Aston Villa, one wonders why a serious bid was not launched for Ollie Watkins, a proven creative fulcrum who could provide a serious focal point in a sputtering, pathetic attack. In all seriousness, a short-term deal for legendary striker Jamie Vardy would looked to have been a sound investment (especially considering that Joshua Zirkzee is already waiting to prove himself and would benefit from an experienced striker). Instead, those in charge of sourcing the incoming personnel in the summer transfer window decided to, yet again, beat their heads on the same brick wall. The best part about doing so is that, after enough time, you’ve destroyed so many brain cells that it feels more like a gray matter massage than a botched lobotomy. Of course, both of which are prerequisites for finding any modicum of enjoyment in the last few years of Manchester United’s on-field performances.

If the reader is picking up any notions that the writer of this article has exhausted their sanity, I would applaud them for their empathy. What began as a light-hearted transfer review has morphed into something more direct: a cutthroat assessment of what Manchester United really is at this point in time: a joke. I have for a long time been the greatest defender of my club against the constant barrage of negativity that cannot be escaped. The English media on its own is particularly curt, giving no quarter or room for error to one of the largest and most famous institutions in the land. If I were to describe the relationship between the media and the Red Devils, it would be that of a bystander pouring water on the face of a drowning man. While I completely disagree with the volume of criticism as well as the infamous retort of “hated, adored, but never ignored”, I cannot dissuade anyone that there is a problem at Manchester United. Without meaning to sound like a broken record, the ownership of the Glazer family is the sole reason behind the death of a formerly formidable European giant. We won’t discuss the outgoings from the squad in the last few seasons, or how every one of them suddenly remembers how to play football as soon as they leave Old Trafford. These points are regurgitated by any and all from soapboxes and rooftops alike. Instead, a short history lesson would be more apt. In 2005 the Glazers acquired Manchester United Football Club for around 790 million British Pounds, which would be close to 1.4 billion GBP in today’s money (adjusted for the near 80% cumulative inflation in the UK since that year). You might be thinking to yourself “wow, the Glazer family must have had deep pockets to fork out almost 800 million GBP to purchase, at the time, the biggest club in England!”. Surprisingly, you would be completely incorrect. The Glazers used what is referred to as a Leveraged Buyout to purchase the club, which is a fancy way of saying that they didn’t have the time/care to truly invest themselves in it. Instead, around 540 million GBP of the purchase was funded via loans secured against the club itself. If this sounds ridiculous, that’s because it is.

To put things into perspective, imagine you are the owner of a very successful local restaurant. You’ve spent decades turning your restaurant into a spot adorned by the local community, so much so that you gain international recognition. People come from all over the world just to eat your food, with some even making the journey 3 times a week or more. Sure, you might be friends with the health inspectors and get some favorable decisions from local law enforcement that allows you to park wherever you want, but you run a tight ship. Not a thing escapes your gaze, and your operation is top-notch. After years of nothing but success, you get to a point where you want to cash out and retire. Along comes this limousine carting around two aristocrats with so much money that they have the vanity to assume that they can and should do whatever they want, which includes owning and operating a restaurant. Have they ever owned a restaurant before? Heavens no! They haven’t even eaten at yours, a staple of the global and local community for decades at this point. But how hard can it be? At least, that’s what they might’ve thought if they ever actually intended to run the restaurant, but we’ll get to that later. The two aristocrats waddle into your fine establishment and see nothing more than a source of revenue, ignoring any and all tradition that has brought you to that point of success. They offer to buy your restaurant from you, but here’s the catch! Almost 70% of their bid is financed by a loan leveraged against the restaurant. So the value of the restaurant is paid by… the restaurant? You accept the bid, not too worried by the sinister glint in the eyes of the two aristocrats, who promptly slap on the title of “co-chairman” before rolling out the door and never truly returning to view the state of their newly minted commercial asset… sorry, family-centered fine dining establishment. In place of being present every day, they appoint several managers who get fed up with a lack of communication or support (some of whom liked to regularly spit in the food) until 20 years later they are left with a barren shell of what was once a staple of the community. To top it all off, the hot dog stand that was across the street for the entire lifespan of your restaurant was bought by well-financed, educated and involved oil barons who regularly dump billions of dollars into their project while hiring the best in class for quite literally any facet of the organization. They now sit upon the preverbal throne that was once yours, and deservedly so.

Back to reality now. The loans taken out against Manchester United carried incredibly high interest rates (some greater than 14%) of which the burden was placed upon the club, rather than its owners. Almost overnight, an historically sustainable business model transformed into one where, on an annual basis, tens of millions of GPB went to resolving debt instead of the football. A effective net transfer of 1.2 billion GBP of wealth has been made from the fans and club to its owners/creditors in the time since that takeover (via debt repayments, dividends, fees, and interest). Don’t worry, it gets better. In 2016, Manchester United Football Club became the only club in the Premier League to begin issuing annual dividends. At a value of around 20 million GBP per year, a majority of this goes directly to lining the pockets of the Glazer family. These dividends have still been paid out in years of historically poor performance, with the Glazer family sometimes borrowing money from the club on top of their annual dividends.

There is one light at the end of the tunnel, with Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s 2023 takeover bid injecting the slightest bit of hope into the Red Devils fanbase. INEOS bought a 25% stake in Manchester United and assumed sporting control. Sir Jim and his consortium have publicly suggested that footballing priorities must come first, but the annual dividends received by the Glazers will continue to restrict the idea of cash flowing towards sporting-related investments. Effectively, the Glazer family has insulated themselves from backlash about on-pitch performances while retaining around 70% voting rights to block any full sale or shift in the current financial policies. INEOS have done their level best to work around this, installing Omar Berrada as CEO as well as other industry professionals to create a more modern football department. We have yet to see any true growth, but the grip of the Glazers on the club is slipping. One can only hope that it falls entirely out of their hands.

So yes, the Manchester United of old is dead. The club bastardized by its current majority owners has given its fans their first glimpse of true change in decades. It could be said that a new(er) Manchester United sits on the horizon. Then again, so does an oasis in a vast ocean of sand. The point being: be hopefully optimistic, but measured in dreaming. We are not yet in the eye of the storm, and there is heavier weather to bare before real change comes. The chances of Manchester United winning the Premier League title in the next few years are much less likely than that of a cup competition, but 5000/1 aren’t the worst odds.